NFL Betting Lines Picks Week 14
All NFL game lines come courtesy of TopBet and are accurate as of Wednesday, Dec. 6. As always, please double-check these odds with your sportsbook before placing a wager, as they are liable to move between the middle of the week and kickoff time.
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Keep Trusting Seattle
Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, as pointed out ad nauseam, are done for the season, turning Seattle’s Legion of Boom into one now trying to stave off its own doom. The Jaguars don’t pose the same type of offensive threat the Eagles did, but Blake Bortles is playing slightly better under center, and their own stingy defense will force the Seahawks to be on point, lest they fold in what figures to be a grind-it-out matchup.
Even with all this in mind, the Seahawks are the pick. And why exactly? Because they’re capable of getting up for this occasion.
They proved as much last week, when they limited Philadelphia’s top-ranked offense to a mere 10 points. They should have no trouble locking down a Jaguars offense that, despite its overall improvement, remains light on results through the air.
Plus, if we’re being honest, the Seahawks might be the most underrated team in football. They rank in the top nine of both points scored and points allowed per game, and yet they’re constantly treated like underdogs.
The Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+3)
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Philly Is Your Team In Week 14
The Eagles could think of better ways to follw up last week’s 10-point dud against the Seahawks than to face a surprisingly competent Los Angeles Rams unit. Not only do they rank seventh in points allowed per game, but the Rams are tied with the Eagles for first place in points scored per tilt.
That type of balance is harrowing for opponents, including the Eagles, who pair their own first-place offense with a sixth-place defense. The margin between these two teams simply cannot get any thinner. Turning to Pro-Football-Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS), which ranks squads according strength of schedule and point differential, doesn’t even help. The Eagles check in at third, while the Rams finish in second.
Our deciding factor: The Rams’ performance at home. They’ve been a hair better on the road, and the Eagles will want to send a message following their Week 13 letdown.
The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)
Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Prepare Yourself For Pittsburgh To Dominate
Since losing on their own turf to the Jaguars in early November, the Steelers are 3-0 in Pittsburgh, with an average margin of victory that eclipses 13.6 points. These two squads are evenly matched when looking at the collective stat sheet, with both leaning on hyper-stingy defenses to get by. But the Steelers, unlike the Ravens, have the offensive firepower to really get out in front like a runaway freight train.
The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Oakland Raiders (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
Lean Into Oakland’s Recent Surge
And they couldn’t be facing the Chiefs at a better time.
Kansas City is riding a four-game losing streak, during which time its offense has been complete and utter crud. Even when factoring in last week’s 31-point detonation, the Chiefs are still averaging under 17 points over their past four contests.
That doesn’t bode well for them against a Raiders defense that’s starting to clamp up. Oakland has allowed more than 25 points just once over the last four weeks, and while the offense pales in comparison to last year’s machine, the team is 12th in net yards per passing attempt. That should give the Raiders enough firepower to blitz through a crumbling Chiefs secondary, which now ranks 27th in net yards allowed per passing attempt on the year.
The Pick: Oakland Raiders (+4)
Washington Redskins (+6) at Los Angeles Chargers (-6)
Stick in a fork in the Washington Redskins. They’re done. Finished. Kaput. They’ve dropped five of their last seven games, over which time they’re allowing an average of nearly 29 points per contest.
This wouldn’t have been a huge deal earlier in the year, when the Chargers we’re still floundering in obscurity on the offensive side of the ball. But Philip Rivers and company are starting to figure things out. They’ve topped 25 points in two of their past three games, and they have the defensive chops to remain afloat when things go sideaways for their heavy-passing system.
Never mind that the Chargers rank fourth in points scored per game. Sure, that’s fantastic. But they haven’t allowed an opposing offense to tally 25 or more points since Week 4—and that’s the only time this season they’ve let anyone rise above said 25-point benchmark.
Take the Chargers seriously in the race for the AFC West title. And take them to win running away versus a rather unimpressive Redskins outfit.
The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (-6)
*Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and accurate leading into games for Week 14 unless otherwise cited.
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