Mon 09/02/2015 - 19:27 EST

Padres World Series Odds On Move After Signing James Shields

Pitchers and catchers around baseball will begin reporting to spring training sites in Arizona and Florida in less than two weeks and the biggest-name free agent still on the market finally found an employer on Monday as the San Diego Padres signed pitcher James Shields to a four-year, $75 million deal -- a lot less money than Shields no doubt was expecting this offseason.

That addition jumped San Diego from 25/1 to 16/1 on Bovada’s World Series odds. Shields had a 14-8 record with a 3.21 ERA, 180 strikeouts and just 44 walks in 227 innings for the Kansas City Royals last season. He did struggle in the playoffs and has a career postseason ERA of 5.46. Shields made $13.5 million in 2014 after the Royals exercised the option on his contract before the season. The veteran right-hander, who grew up near San Diego, provides the Padres with a workhorse in pitching-friendly Petco Park. Shields ranks first among MLB pitchers with 1,785 2/3 innings pitched since 2007, according to Seattle’s Felix Hernandez is second in that span with 1,785 1/3 innings, while Detroit’s Justin Verlander is third at 1,780 2/3. The move adds to the impressive makeover for the Padres, who have landed Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Will Middlebrooks, Wil Myers and Derek Norris this offseason after finishing last in the majors in runs scored in 2014. Signing Shields gives the Padres six pitchers who are capable of handling 150 or so innings in a major league rotation and three others who might contribute something less than that this year. That should be enough to get them 1,000 innings from their starters even if they choose to deal one of them.  Shields and Ian Kennedy are the best bets to take the ball 33 times and reach 200 innings. Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner have better upside on a per-inning basis, but neither is a good bet to stay healthy for a full season. Odrisamer Despaigne is probably just a fifth starter in the long run, but he made 23 pro starts last year. The ZiPS projection system, which factors in this inherent risk, values Shields at $84 million in San Diego over the next four seasons, with his projected WAR only barely dipping below three in his final guaranteed season. ESPN ran ZiPS season simulations on San Diego two weeks ago and the Padres averaged 81 wins, third in the NL West behind the Dodgers and the Giants. Now that number is 84 wins on average. Just going from an 81 to an 84-win average was enough to boost the simulated playoff odds for San Diego from 30 percent to 49 percent, almost a fifth of a playoff spot. And that wasn’t only improving the wild-card odds; the divisional odds, the most important ones given MLB’s current playoff structure, improved from 10 percent to 21 percent. If there’s one concern, it’s that In the past two seasons, Shields has benefited greatly from the Kansas City Royals’ outfield defense. In that span, Shields has allowed a 34.4 percent fly ball rate, which is above the major-league average for qualifying pitchers in that span. On fly balls traveling at least 250 feet, Shields allowed a .186 batting average, fourth-lowest among pitchers to have at least 250 at-bats end with a fly ball traveling at least that far. In the past two seasons, the Royals had three players in the top 10 in MLB in defensive WAR. The Padres’ outfield of Kemp, Myers and Upton projects to be one of the league’s worst defensively.

Category : Sports Betting News

Leave a comment
More articles...
Sports Betting News - 22/08/19
US Open 2019 Betting Odds: Can Naomi Osaka, Novak Djokovic Defend Their Crowns? 
The world's best tennis players are once again headed to New York! That's right: The 2019 US Open is upon us, and it remains littered with rock-solid betting opportunities. Last year's champions, Novak Djokovic and Naomi Osaka, enter as No. 1 seeds in their field. Will they repeat as champs? Let's parse the betting field!
Read this article 
Sports Betting News - 13/08/19
NFL Futures: Odds and Predictions for Super Bowl Champion and League MVP 
The 2019 NFL regular season already looks like it'll be a dramatic affair. The reigning Super Bowl champion New England Patriots enter as odds-on favorites, but the league's pecking order is fluid. The Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles and so many others are knocking on the championship door. Should the Patriots actually be favorites? And what's the best MVP bet? Let's get into it now.
Read this article 
Sports Betting News - 07/08/19
UFC 241: Daniel Cormier vs Stipe Miocic II Betting Odds and Predictions 
Daniel Cormier vs. Stipe Miocic II is a rematch everyone has been waiting on for more than a year—ever since Cormier beat Miocic last July. But they aren't the only big fight on UFC 241's dance card. Chief among the others: Anthony Pettis vs. Nate Diaz. Let's take a look at the latest odds and suss out the best bets across the board.
Read this article 
Sports Betting News - 23/07/19
UFC 240 Betting Odds: Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar Lines and Picks 
UFC 240 is going to be a busy affair, and it will all be centered around the much-anticipated battle between Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar. Though Holloway enters as the overwhelming favorite, some think Edgar stands a chance. Who should you bet on? We've got you covered for this fight, along with the other four most important bouts.
Read this article