Premier League wagering insight
Which teams & bets to back this week
By Matt Pitt
Everton (+275) vs. Liverpool (-105)
Everton take on local rival Liverpool at Goodison Park in what is the fixture of the weekend. Everton have struggled for form so far this season, but all form goes out of the window in this exciting derby match as players from both teams know how much it means to their supporters.
Ronald Koeman’s Everton are unbeaten at home in their last eight matches and recently beat Arsenal by two goals to one.
Liverpool may have beaten Middlesbrough 3-0 away in midweek but find themselves six points adrift of Chelsea at the top of the table, so the Reds will go all out to secure all three points when they take on their local rivals.
It is worth noting that the past four Merseyside derbies held at Goodison Park have ended in draws and that looks like a good bet to make. Bovada’s current betting odds for a tie are +260, roughly the same price as an Everton win, and that is where my cash is going for this match.
Pick: Draw at +260
Manchester City (+115) vs. Arsenal (+225)
Manchester City beat Watford 2-0 at home midweek to end a run of two successive defeats, the first time manager Pep Guardiola has lost two consecutive league games in his career.
You never know which City team will show up. On their day, City are world beaters, but when they’re not on form they do are average. That said, the only defeat they have experienced at home this campaign is a 3-1 loss to Chelsea.
City’s opponents this week are Arsenal, who have only lost once on the road, a 2-1 defeat this week at Everton. Arsenal have the best attack in the league away from home and that must be worrying the City fans. However, Arsenal showed in their 2-1 defeat at Everton that they struggle when teams are physical.
This game ended in a 2-2 draw last season and, while I am not going to go out on a limb and predict an exact score for this season’s game, I think betting on the both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at -110 represents the best value for those of you at home betting on this fixture.
Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at -110
Crystal Palace (+425) vs. Chelsea (-175)
I have a friend who is a devout Crystal Palace fan and his social media feeds are full of him bemoaning his side’s bad luck. According to my friend, Palace are not getting the rub of the green and should be much higher than their current 16th place in the Premier League table. Manager Alan Pardew seems to agree.
Palace have lost seven of their last 10 games, winning once and drawing twice during that time frame. The Eagles’ awful form stems from their inability to keep clean sheets.
They have one from 16 games this campaign. They score plenty of goals, the fifth highest tally in the Premier League to date, but simply cannot defend. That spells big trouble this weekend because Chelsea are in town.
Antonio Conte and compan are six points clear at the top of the table. The Blues have won all 10 of their previous 10 games, conceding only twice during that time while bagging 24 goals. They have only dropped points twice on the road this season, losing 3-0 at Arsenal and drawing 2-2 at Swansea.
This game could have a score that would be more suited to cricket by the time the referee blows the final whistle and the -175 on a Chelsea win looks longer than I would expect when you consider recent form.
That said, the +110 you can get on a Chelsea-Chelsea half time / full time result looks a steal. If Chelsea get their noses in front before half time, there is no way they’ll conceded defeat.
Pick: Chelsea-Chelsea double result at +110
Other Premier League Fixtures
West Ham United (-160) vs. Hull City (+425)
Stoke City (+150) vs. Leicester City (+185)
Sunderland (+155) vs. Watford (+185)
Middlesbrough (+105) vs. Swansea City (+270)
West Bromwich Albion (+425) vs. Manchester United (-145)
Bournemouth (+190) vs. Southampton (+150)
Tottenham Hotspur (-500) vs. Burnley (+1300)
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