Updated Super Bowl 53 Odds Following Height of NFL Free Agency
Super Bowl odds come courtesy of TopBet and are accurate as of Friday, April 20. Continue checking these lines up until you actually place your wager, as they will move between now and the regular season. As a rule of thumb, review them after any big moves—which, following the peak of free agency, includes the draft and any potential trades. Teams will be presented in order of increasing championship odds.
Chicago Bears (+10000)
Picking up wide receiver Allen Robinson in free agency was a quality move by the Chicago Bears. Their next biggests transactions, though, were adding backup quarterback Mike Glennon—Mike Glennon—and wideout Markus Wheaton. That says all you need to know.
Cleveland Browns (+10000)
Betting on the Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl will be a waste of money until, quite frankly, it isn’t. But tying them with the Chicago Bears for the worst odds after they added Jarvis Landry and Tyrod Taylor, and when they have picks No. 1 and No. 4 in the draft feels a little cruel.
Miami Dolphins (+10000)
Losing Jarvis Landry comes as a huge blow to the perennially unimpressive Miami Dolphins. Frank Gore, Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson were solid pickups, but this isn’t three to five years ago. Miami, for some reason, willingly got older.
New York Jets (+10000)
Major ups to the New York Jets for investing in cornerback Trumaine Johnson. He shores up the secondary of what should be a solid defense. The opposite of major ups, however, must be awarded for them failing to do anything else of note. Their Josh McCown-Teddy Bridgewater dynamic is weird, and as a result, they’re no closer to figuring out their vacancy at quarterback.
Arizona Cardinals (+8000)
If quarterback Sam Bradford—along with inbound offensive lineman Andre Johnson and Justin Pugh—can all stay healthy, the Arizona Cardinals have the tools to do some special, under-the-radar things. The problem? Expecting Bradford to play in all 16 games under center is among the least bankable things in NFL history.
Cincinnati Bengals (+8000)
Re-signing tight end Tyler Eifert was nice—and necessary. Ditto for acquiring left tackle Cordy Glenn. But the Cincinnati Bengals won just seven games last year, weren’t particularly young and have yet to make any substantive changes. That’s…less than inspiring.
Washington Redskins (+8000)
Sportsbooks do not have a kind view of the Washington Redskins trading for Alex Smith. He’s a solid option at QB, but he’s more game manager than big-time playmaker. Their offense could end up missing Kirk Cousins a great deal, even with Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson doing work on their routes. And if it doesn’t, they’ll still have a crummy-looking defense on their hands.
Buffalo Bills (+7500)
Out of the $50 million in guaranteed money the Buffalo Bills doled out this offseason, roughly 86 percent ($43 million) went to players age 28 or younger, according to ESPN. That’s a solid youth movement. Star Lotulelei is their biggest acquisition, and he represents an all-in commitment to the defensive side of the ball. So, too, does the decision to punt on Tyrod Taylor’s future. The Bills could be interesting, but they’re not playoff-bound.
Detroit Lions (+6000)
Signing linebacker Devon Kennard helps strengthen what was already an okay defense. But, like, damn: The Detroit Lions have a ton of money invested in quarterback Matthew Stafford yet still refuse to really go out and get premier offensive weapons. This team remains mediocre.
New York Giants (+6000)
After entering last year as a borderline Super Bowl favorite option, the New York Giants have low-key dark-horse potential this season. Eli Manning isn’t done yet. He just needs a strong offensive line. And the Giants, on paper, have finally given him one. Their outlook could change if they trade Odell Beckham Jr., but that officially appears unlikely. In fact, they could end up pairing him with Dez Bryant, which would allow Manning to do some elite-level things—especially with Jonathan Stewart joining Shane Vereen in the backfield.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6000)
*Checks to see whether Jameis Winston is still the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting quarterback*
*Then checks to see whether Dirk Koetter is still the head coach*
Yep, nothing to see here. The Bucs are a wash. Wideout Mike Evans should be fun to watch again, but that’s about the extent of Tampa Bay’s appeal right now.
Tennessee Titans (+5000)
Installing Mike Vrabel as head coach following a playoff berth is an interesting move by the Tennessee Titans. They earned a postseason bid on the back of sub-mediocrity and needed to infuse some creativity and innovation into their offense. If Vrabel can unleash Marcus Mariota’s big-gain gene under center, the Titans could end up improving upon their 9-7 record from last season.
Indianapolis Colts (+4000)
Retaining kicker Adam Vinateri was the Indianapolis Colts’ crowning free-agent transaction. That effectively means their season will come down to a pair of questions: Is Andrew Luck healthy? And if he’s healthy, will he pilot an offense that’s elite enough to overshadow a defense that will probably rank in the bottom five of points allowed per game once again?
Baltimore Ravens (+3500)
Picking up Michael Crabtree and John Brown gives quarterback Joe Flacco both a strong short-yardage and downfield option. But then you remember he’s Joe Flacco. And then you instantly feel not so good about the Baltimore Ravens’ chances of winning more than nine games.
Carolina Panthers (+3500)
The Carolina Panthers could—perhaps should—hover around the 10-win mark for a second consecutive season. Cam Newton remains in his prime, and the defense can be plucky. Still, we’d feel a lot better about their upcoming campaign had they not settled for merely acquiring Torrey Smith on the trade market. Investing in a free-agent receiver like Sammy Watkins or Allen Robinson, while expensive, would have made a huge difference.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3000)
Sammy Watkins? Tyreek Hill? Kareem Hunt? On the same team? In the same offense? Yes, please. The Kansas City Chiefs would be sitting even prettier if they weren’t about to run out Patrick Mahomes under center. He’s started all of one NFL game thus far, so there’s no telling whether he’s ready to make the most out of the weapons around him.
Seattle Seahawks (+3000)
It’s tough to like anything the Seattle Seahawks did in free agency. Yes, they re-signed safety Bradley McDougald, but only after obliterating the rest of their Legion-of-Boom core, along with some key offensive pieces. That nucleus may have been past its prime, but the Seahawks aren’t exactly teeming with new or upcoming skill players on either side of the field.
Atlanta Falcons (+2800)
The Atlanta Falcons just wrapped up one of the least convincing 10-win crusades in recent memory, and then they did nothing over the offseason, to date, to guarantee the strength of their defense or improvement from their slumping offense. Betting on them at anything under +3500 feels like a bad decision.
Dallas Cowboys (+2800)
Allen Hurns looked like a much better addition before the Dallas Cowboys waived Dez Bryant. Alas, now the offense feels utterly dependent on an aging Jason Witten, the unspectacular Cole Beasley and Robinson himself. In other words: Get ready for Ezekiel Elliott to receive all the backfield touches.
Denver Broncos (+2800)
Case Keenum joining the Denver Broncos is one of free agency’s most intriguing developments. This team has a pair of stud wideouts in Emmanuel Sanders and Demariyus Thomas, and now suddenly employs a quarterback who might be able to utilize them in a way Denver hasn’t seen since the tail end of Peyton Manning’s heyday.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2800)
New kicker. New center. Strong defense. Ever-consistent Philip Rivers under center. Good health…for now.
Yeah, this year’s Los Angeles Chargers could be a playoff team—not a Super Bowl contender, but a potential 10-win hunter for sure.
New Orleans Saints (+2800)
Giving quarterback Drew Brees a two-year deal was a no-brainer for the New Orleans Saints. Resisting the urge to splurge on offensive players elsewhere wasn’t as easy of a decision. But the Saints stuck to their guns and surfed the bargain market. The additions of cornerback Patrick Robinson and defensive end Alex Okafor fortify a defense that was already to world better last season. New Orleans yet again has “Super Bowl Contender” plastered across its proverbial forehead.
Oakland Raiders (+2800)
Jordy Nelson is, in theory, an upgrade over the departed Michael Crabtree. But his injury history is weird and he’ll be 33 when next season kicks off. It’s also going to take some time for quarterback Derek Carr to master new-old head coach Jon Gruden’s offensive approach. That the Oakland Raiders are laying anything better than +4000 is kind of surprising.
Houston Texans (+1800)
If quarterback Deshaun Watson and star defensive-everything J.J. Watt both remain healthy all year, the Houston Texans have the tools to make some noise in the AFC South division. Of course, if Andrew Luck stays healthy in Indy and Mariota makes the leap in Tennessee, they could also find themselves playing in perhaps the NFL’s toughest four-team sector. Exercise extreme caution when betting on them prior to the start of the regular season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1800)
The Jacksonville Jaguars scooped up the best offensive lineman on the market in Andrew Norwell. Running back Leonard Fournette should have a field day attacking from his six. People need to start warming up to Blake Bortles’ new deal as well; it’s relatively low in risk, with the potential for a high reward. Continue treating the Jaguars as the AFC South’s best team and a legitimate threat in the AFC in general.
San Francisco 49ers (+1800)
On the one hand, the hype train surrounding quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo needs to slow its roll. On the other hand, snagging Richard Sherman after the Seahawks waived him could be a huge boon for the defense. The San Francisco 49ers look properly priced for now. They might be a better play in Week 2 or Week 3, should they stumble out of the gate and oddsmakers overreact, but they’re fine to look at now.
Green Bay Packers (+1200)
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers isn’t thrilled about the state of the Green Bay Packers team to which he’s returning. And, well, can you blame him? Tight end Jimmy Graham is a nice addition. The same goes for defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson. But they hit the peace-out button on Jordy Nelson, Rodgers’ favorite target, without adequately replacing him.
Maybe Randall Cobb, who is more than a half-decade Nelson’s senior, is ready for an alpha’s workload, but it would have been nice to see the Packers play up the whole “We have Aaron Rodgers” card and spend on another high-profile wideout. It didn’t have to be Sammy Watkins—though, imagine if it was. Courting Allen Robinson a little harder would have sufficed.
Minnesota Vikings (+1200)
Meet the NFL’s marquee boom-or-bust contender.
The Minnesota Vikings’ defense will be fine. Their run game should survive, too. But if Kirk Cousins doesn’t work the Pro-Bowl magic he did in Washington, the offense could wind up being less productive than it was under his predecessor, Case Keenum.
Los Angeles Rams (+1000)
Getting Ndamukong Suh is massively important for a Los Angeles Rams defense that started to show cracks later in the schedule. Now the question is whether the league’s highest-scoring offense can overcome the loss of star wideout Sammy Watkins. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley are good, but the Rams need someone to stretch the field. Watkins was it, and it’s unclear whether Brandin Cooks’ arrival will offset his exit in any way.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1000)
Entering the offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers desperately needed to tighten up their secondary. Yes, they finished seventh in points allow during the regular season. And sure, they placed inside the top 10 of just about every passing-prevention category. But they were nevertheless thin on the outside—susceptible, at the very least, to giving up too many large-yardage plays.
Identifying their need was easy. Plugging it was not. Or rather, it wasn’t supposed to be. They had under $10 million in cap space—which is nothing in NFL. Yet, somehow, they managed to grab safety Morgan Bennett, the longtime Packer.
Moral of the story: Ticket them for another 11-plus wins and top-10 placement on both the offensive and defensive side.
Philadelphia Eagles (+800)
Your Super Bowl 52 champs are in pretty great shape. Losing Patrick Robinson’s presence in the secondary will sting. Torrey Smith’s absence from the offense won’t hurt as much, but the Philadelphia Eagles will need veteran Mike Wallace to make some plays for his exit not to matter.
Overall, however, this squad gained more than they lost. Defensive lineman Haloti Ngata and Michael Bennett will soup-up their front seven, and they’ll be getting one-time MVP candidate Carson Wentz back under center. As long as he doesn’t need an extensive learning curve to work off the rust, the Eagles shouldn’t have any trouble avoiding a complete letdown as the encore to their Super Bowl victory.
New England Patriots (+600)
We could theoretically pretend to worry about the New England Patriots. They lost offensive lineman Nate Solder to the Giants. Malcolm Butler fell out of favor before the Super Bowl. And above all else, Tom Brady has yet to guarantee his return for the upcoming season.
Should the greatest quarterback of all time retire, the Patriots would be screwed. They already flipped Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers and don’t have a budding flamethrower in place. But let’s be real: Tom Brady isn’t retiring. All he’s done is talk about how he wants to play into his mid-40s. Well, he turns 41 in August—old, but not old enough to imagine him calling it quits.
Count on him being back. Also count on the Patriots doing something weird on draft night, as they own three of the top 45 picks.
*All stats come courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise cited.
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