Euro 2016 Matchday 5 Predictions
Euro 2016 Matchday 5 Betting Lines & Analysis
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By Matt Pitt
Austria (-133) versus Hungary (+450)
Group F of the 2016 European Championships sees its first game kick off at 5:00 p.m. CET on June 14 when Austria take on Hungary in Bordeaux.
The Austrians are priced at +3300 to win Euro 2016, and while that does seem like a longshot, several soccer pundits around the world have predicted that Austria could be the dark horses of the tournament and upset a few teams on the way.
Austria were superb in their Euro 2016 qualifying campaign, topping Group G by eight points and beating Russia and Sweden to automatic qualification. Nine wins and a draw from their ten games saw Austria score 22 goals while only conceding five on route to amassing 28 points.
The -133 on an Austria win looks good value especially as Hungary had to go through the playoffs to get to France. A 1-0 victory is priced at around +480 with a 2-0 Austria win coming in at +650.
Austria’s Marc Janko is the favorite to open the scoring at +350 with Janko +150 to score during the 90 minutes. The Basel forward scored 20 goals in 29 games last season and was Austria’s main attacking threat.
Stoke City’s Marko Arnautovic, who scored 11 goals during the 2015-16 Premier League season, provides another goal-scoring threat. You can currently get odds of around +225 for him to score at any time during the game.
With odds of +50000 to win Euro 2016, it is safe to say that Hungary are not fancied; you would get shorter odds on Elvis being found alive and well!
The Hungarians made hard work of qualifying for the finals, scoring only 11 goals (four of those came in a 4-0 win over Lithuania) and conceding nine (four of those came in a 4-3 loss to Greece). To put it into context, Hungary finished behind Euro 2016 outsiders Romania and Northern Ireland so will likely be outclassed in this game.
Hungary are generally solid defensively, but lack any concerted attacking force.
Hungary will make it difficult for Austria, which makes the +260 on a tie being a bet you should look at, as is the under 1.5 goal market that is currently around the -300 mark.
A point would a great result for Hungary, and we suspect they will “park the bus” and play for a nil-nil draw, hoping to nick a goal from a set piece or counterattack.
Portugal (-175) versus Iceland (+700)
Much-fancied Portugal (+1200 to win Euro 2016) begin their campaign with a match against Iceland, and they should walk away with all three points although Iceland will not simply roll over and allow the Portuguese to have it all their own way.
Portugal hardly set the world alight during qualifying, but still finished on top of Group I, scoring 11 goals and letting in five from their eight games. We fully expect Portugal to be much more attacking at Euro 2016, especially as Cristiano Ronaldo loves to showcase his skills on the biggest stage.
Ronaldo, who bagged a brace in Portugal’s 7-0 demolition of Estonia in their final warm-up game, is +240 to open the scoring against Iceland, and -110 to score at any time. He’s also the +600 favorite to be the top goalscorer of Euro 2016 thanks to scoring 51 goals in 48 games for Real Madrid last season.
Iceland may be relative minnows of the soccer world playing in their first European Championships, but they do have some strong attacking players which could cause Portugal a few problems.
Seven of Iceland’s last eight games have featured over 2.5 goals, making the +125 available for this betting market look like a steal, as does the +850 on a 2-1 Portugal victory.