FA Cup Predictions
Best FA Cup Future Bets
By Paul Seaton
As we turn our attention to the futures markets and individual games, let’s continue our search for value in this season’s FA Cup by covering the only replay left to be settled.
Wednesday 1st March
Manchester City (-700) vs. Huddersfield Town (+1400)
The Citizens were unable to score at the John Smith’s Stadium and will be desperate to make it through to a winnable quarter-final against Middlesbrough.
Huddersfield are playing well in the Championship, the Yorkshire club now up to third in the table after winning 24 out of their 32 league games so far. They’ve only tied four, but will default to a defensive pattern against bigger teams. But City will have too much for Huddersfield at home.
The Eventual FA Cup Winner
Of the remaining eight teams (if we’re ruling out Huddersfield), we must discount Lincoln City. As much fun as they have been, odds of +2800 to beat Arsenal at The Emirates are not harsh. The F.A. Cup now represents Arsenal‘s only chance of silverware.
They are not a bad bet at all to win the competition on that basis at +300. Now joint-favorites for the competition with Manchester City (also +300), Arsenal are not going to have it all their own way, however.
Chelsea, at +400, would be our picks for the tournament. They have a disguised easy draw in the next round, with Manchester United competing on four fronts.
The F.A. Cup is the lowest priority given it does not provide a place in next season’s Champions League, something the Europa League winners (United are favorites at +225) are guaranteed. For this reason, Chelsea should progress, and being two matches from doing the double could prove to be a massive motivator, with the Blues already well clear in the Premier League.
They also have the edge in recent clashes with United in cup competitions, beating them to the 2007 F.A. Cup in the final itself:
Tottenham Hotspur, at +350, are also really good value, especially considering their easier quarterfinal draw against Millwall.
Pochettino’s men are out of Europe and struggling to nail down a top four place. They haven’t won the competition in over 25 years, and correcting that could go a long way to appeasing fans after a season that started so brightly but has fallen flat.
It now looks highly unlikely that there will be an outsider who can triumph. If there is one, then it may come from London, who have four teams still in with a chance.
The outsiders of that bunch are Millwall at +10000, and seem rank no-hopers by those odds, too. They are a lot better than those odds suggest. Having already beaten Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester, they have triumphed over some decent Premier League outfits and could yet further surprise us. But Tottenham will come out determined, especiallhy after being ousted in the Europa League. Spurs should have enough to advance in this one.
Millwall reached the final in 2004, too, so have form in reaching Wembley:
If you are fearless and feel Millwall can pull of the improbable, here’s some bets for you. Millwall have the ability to shock anyone on their day. Millwall are likely to win by the odd goal, having done so against Watford (1-0) and Leicester (1-0 in the last round).
They are +2800 to win either 1-0 or 2-1 and even placing both those bets effectively gives you +1400 on a single goal victory, with Millwall unlikely to be able to outscore Spurs in a five-goal thriller.