Over under bets for Super Bowl
Over under Super Bowl bets
The NFL’s biggest game of the year is fast approaching, and we should all be trying to do as much prep work as possible in advance of kickoff for Super Bowl 51. Though we don’t know which teams will be participating just yet, we can look to games from years past for directives that will show us how to bet depending on which squads end up in Houston for the NFL’s big dance.
Here, we’re specifically talking about over/under plays. We’ve taken a look at past outcomes, courtesy of the folks over at Vegas Insider, and detected some trends that will be useful to every bettor moving forward.
First thing’s first: Since 1985, a stretch that’s spanned 32 Super Bowls, a relatively overwhelming number of them have gone to the over. Nineteen of the last 32 big games, in fact, have reached the over. That’s around 59.4 percent of those Super Bowls, and that’s a big deal in the sportsbetting landscape.
Still, a virtual six-to-four ration isn’t foolproof. It’s only slightly better than a coin toss when you really think about it, and the goal here is to give yourself a much, much, much more rock-solid chance than that.
Besides, when you narrow the scope to the last 12 Super Bowls, seven of the outcomes have favored the under—or 58.3 percent. So these macro and micro views won’t give you the edge you need. We must turn to some of the matchups to do that.
Over this 32-year span, the Super Bowl sparrings have typically included at least one team that’s among the top five in points scored per game. When you put that firepower on a field in what’s mostly warm weather or inside domes, the league is just begging for the over to take effect.
It’s no surprise or accident that Super Bowl 49 saw the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks total more than 50 points while playing in Glendale, Arizona. Both teams entered the game ranked fourth or better in points scored per week.
Conversely, it’s no surprise that Super Bowl 50 saw the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers combine for 34 points and hit the under. While the Panthers finished their season as one of the league’s best offenses, themselves and the Broncos each finished in the top five of points allowed per game.
That’s what you’re looking in these Super Bowl betters: the prevailing shared identities of both participants.
If both of them rank in the top 10 or better of defense, while only one checks in that favorably on the offensive side, the over is going to be a more appealing bet. But if both teams have a top defense with, the under is going to be more attractive.
Super Bowl spreads are another tool to use on the over/under. The smaller the spread, the closer, in theory, each squad is too one another. That gives the game a better chance of reaching the over, the idea being that the smaller gap results in a in two teams trading shots back-and-forth.
And when we say small spreads, we mean small spreads—under five points.
In the last 10 Super Bowls that featured a favorite with a 4.5-point spread or less, eight of those games have reached the over. That’s not a coincidence.
One final thing to consider is the over/under benchmark itself. Super Bowl games are typically given some a projected total between 46 and 48 points. If Super Bowl 51 yields an anomaly in either direction, it’s best to pounce.
For example, in the event this year’s participants are predicted to score 49 or more points, the under becomes your friend. Only two of the last seven Super Bowls with an over/under of 49 or more have actually hit the over.
On the flipside, an over/under of less than 45 points is begging for over plays. Of the last seven Super Bowls that featured an over/under of 44 or less points, five of them turned out to be better over bets.
Keep all these different scenarios in mind ahead of Super Bowl 51, and you will have a fighting chance at cracking this year’s over/under lines.